Troy Aikman

AER2007_013a.doc

I continue to be struck by the difference between the separation between the best offenses and the best defenses in the NFL this year, both as I’ve observed them in person and as indicated by the differences in the offensive and defensive leaders of the Aikman Efficiency Ratings.

The AERs measure seven different key categories to rate both units.  They work around a historic average of 75.0 for mean production in those categories.  The two units are the inverse of each other, meaning that an offense with a rating of 90 (plus 15 over 75) achieves the same level of performance as a defense of 60 allows – and vice versa.

The league average this year is 76.6. That amount over 75.0 is largely the result of the amazing production of the Patriots who are now at 102.1.  The average of the other 31 teams is about 75.7 with 16 above 75 and 15 below.

As you can see if you look at the AERs below, the Steelers now sit atop the Defensive Ratings, but their rating is only 83.9. 

This Sunday’s game in New England therefore features the number one offense (both in the AERs and NFL) versus the number one defense (ditto).

However, the numbers 102.1 versus 83.9 tell you how much more dominant as an offense the Patriots have been. 

For example, there are only two teams (Cowboys and Colts) within 15.0 points of New England’s AER Offensive Rating.

On the other hand, there are 26 teams within 15.0 points of the Steelers.

Pittsburgh may have the best defense in the NFL at the moment, but their margin over average performance is surprisingly small.

They say that you win in the NFL with great defense, but the simple fact of the matter is that no one in the league has played that kind of defense as judged by a historic standard.  The defensive talent seems to be spread fairly evenly throughout the league. 

The Chiefs, Ravens and Titans have also been the top-ranked defense in recent weeks.

As you can see at the moment, the margin between the Seahawks at #2 and the Vikings at #8 is just 1.9 points. 

I’m not trying to take anything away from the league’s defenders, as defense is only down slightly from league norms.  It’s just that this year, the defensive talent seems to be widely spread around the league.  Many teams are good, no one is great.

And when that happens, ultimate victory may very well go to the best offenses.  The Patriots have been amazing with the ball.  Even with their tight wins the last two weeks, they’ve scored 51 points on offense.

The Cowboys and the Colts also have offenses that are operating at a better level than the best defenses.  Right now, with the defenses so even, it is how a team plays on offense that is determining who wins.

If you look at the Aikman Combined Ratings, you will note that the teams with the top five AER offensive ratings are also the top five in the Combined.  They are also the only five teams in the NFL with nine or more wins.

In the absence of a dominating defense, it’s how you perform on offense that decides games.

OFFENSE –

As we mentioned last week, the Patriots are almost certain to top the 94.4 mark of the 2004 Indianapolis Colts that is our record for a season AER Offensive Rating.  More problematical though is whether they can beat 100 which would represent “top performance” in all seven categories. 

They’ve slid back from a high of 104.7 two weeks ago.

DEFENSE

In the introduction to this week’s commentary there is discussion about the lack of a dominant defense over the course of the entire season. 

It should be pointed out though that in the last four weeks there have been two defenses that have performed in a dominant fashion, and they are closing in on division titles because of it.

Since Week10, the Buccaneers have an AER Defensive Rating of 93.6 and the Seahawks are right behind them at 92.6.

As a result, both teams are on the move in the season-long rating.  The Seahawks have advanced from 10^th to 2^nd in that span and the Bucs have moved from 19^th to 5^th.

Conversely, the Patriots should have some concern about their defense.  In the last four weeks, New England has performed at a mere 64.8 rate to drop from 6^th to 11^th.

AIKMAN COMBINED

As mentioned above the top five teams in the AER Combined Ratings happen to be the five with the five highest-rated offenses. 

In a case where the NFL method of rating matches up with the Aikmans, the top four teams if you add up their offensive and defensive ranking are also the top four in the NFL’s system based on yards gained and allowed.

There is a difference in the number five spot.  Adding the NFL’s rankings produces the Eagles in 5^th with a combined total of 18.  The AER combined has Philadelphia down at 12^th.

Conversely, a team the AER Combined likes better than adding the NFL numbers is Minnesota.  The Vikings are 8^th in the AERs and 16^th in the NFL with a combined 36 (12^th on offense, 24^th on defense).  Intuitively, I like what the Vikings are doing especially with their domination in both ends of the rushing game. 

AIKMAN GAME RATINGS – Week 13

Teams with the higher Aikman Game Ratings went 14-2 last week while teams with more yards posted an 11-5 W-L record.  It was the 12^th time in 13 weeks this year that the AER Game Ratings leaders have won more than the teams with the most yards.

We think this is significant in showing that the AERs are a better reflection of the qualities needed to win games than just gaining the most yards.  For the year, teams with higher Aikman Game Ratings have won 88% of their games, teams with more yards just 70%.