Filed under: Aikman Efficiency ratings
OFFENSE
The Patriots mark of 99.0 eclipses the previous record on Offense of 94.4 by the 2004 Indianapolis Colts. Their 177.8 Combined AER surpasses the 173.7 of the 1996 Green Bay Packers (AER records date to 1995).
The 2001 Baltimore Ravens defense (101.0) remains the only unit in AER history to top a “perfect” score of 100.
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The Patriots become the fourth team in the 13-year AER database to lead both the Aikman Offense and the NFL ranking based on yards. The other three such teams were the St. Louis Rams between 1999-2001. All four teams (the three for St. Louis and the 2007 Patriots) also won the Triple Crown of Offense by also leading in points scored.
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Although the Patriots have been a top seven AER Offense in each of the last three years, this is the first time they have led overall.
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This is the fifth straight year that the Colts have had a top three AER Offense.
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The Patriots margin of 10.2 points over the second-place Colts is also a record. In 2003, the Chiefs (93.9) were 7.2 points better than the Packers. Last year’s margin of less than a tenth of a point between the Colts and Chiefs (both 93.6) was the closest AER Offensive battle.
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At a plus-12 on their NFL ranking, the Steelers (5 in the AER, 17 NFL) were the best “Aikman” offense in the NFL in 2007, the team that did the most other things besides gaining yards. San Diego at plus-10 (10-20) was the only other team to improve its ranking by double digits.
The Eagles, at minus-7 (13-6), lagged the most.
DEFENSE
The 2007 AER Defense race was as close as the one on Offense was lopsided. With a late push, the Chargers placed first in AER Defense, their first win in either category.
Their 82.0 rating was the lowest ever to win an AER title on either side of the ball and there were 20 teams within the margin of 10.2 that the Patriots dominated by on Offense.
The close finish shows that this was a year without a dominant defense with the margin between 1st and 10th just 5.9 points.
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The Chargers only ranked 14th in the NFL’s yards allowed rankings, the lowest for any team to win an AER title on either side of the ball.
San Diego was fifth in the NFL in points allowed on defense and led the league with 48 turnovers – 11 more any other team. In the seven-category AER defensive calculations it was a margin that provided the decisive advantage of 2.8 AER points over the Colts who finished second.
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The Vikings (6-20) and Bears (14-18) at plus-14 were actually the top AER Defense in terms of positional advantage over the NFL rankings, one more than the Chargers. The Seahawks (plus-10, 5-15) were also in double figures.
The Jets, at minus-12 (30-18), were the lowest in differential.
COMBINED
Although they slipped to 3rd in the final AER Defense Ratings, the Patriots still set a record with their 177.8 mark in the Aikman Combined.
The previous high of 173.7 belongs to the 1996 Packers who remain the only team to lead the AERs in the same season on both sides of the ball.
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The eight teams with the highest Aikman Combined Ratings all made the playoffs.
The Redskins (15), Giants (17) and Titans (18) were the three teams not in the top 12 that did make the playoffs, while the Eagles (9), Vikings (10) and Saints (12) made the top 12 without a playoff berth.
It should be noted that the Eagles were also the only one of the four teams that finished in the top 10 in the NFL’s calculations based on yards that did not make the playoffs.
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Although the two conferences tied at 32-32 in their head-to-head series, the AFC is represented by five of the top six teams in the AER Combined.
MISCELLANEOUS
The league average of 76.7 on Offense was the third-highest in the 13 years of the AERs with the 76.8 in 2002 remaining on top. By themselves, the Patriots accounted for nearly half of the 1.7 points the league’s offenses finished over the AER norm of 75.0.
Indeed, there were 16 defenses above 75.0 and 16 below.
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Each year we compile a record of the Aikman Game Rating. The main point is to show that the seven AER categories together do a better job of measuring the categories that produce victory than does the mere calculation of who gains the most yards which the NFL uses to “rank” offense and defense.
Once again, the AER numbers outstripped yards gained in indicating victory.
Here are the numbers:
Filed under: 2008 NFL Season
It’s wild card weekend, and I’d like to introduce you to a football team
that will be on national TV. It¹s the Jacksonville Jaguars and … what?
You’ve heard of them? Well, that’s fine, but I’ll bet you haven’t heard
much.
The Jaguars have had one of the quietest 11-4 seasons you can imagine. They
have a phenomenal running game, their quarterback has thrown all of three
interceptions in 15 games, they rank near the top of the league in a number
of statistical categories — and nobody notices. Heck, you have to wonder if
the players even notice when a team wins 11 games and not a single player
gets voted to the Pro Bowl.
The Jaguars deserve better. Fred Taylor is a great running back, and has
been for a decade, yet never has been voted to the Pro Bowl. You can argue
that David Garrard, who has a 102.2 passer rating, deserves a nod; he¹s been
playing great football. So have cornerback Rashean Mathis, defensive tackle
John Henderson, end Paul Spicer and others. It’s hard to imagine any team
racking up wins like Jacksonville and going 0-for-Hawaii.
Jack Del Rio probably won’t win coach of the year, either — and I’m not
saying he should — but he certainly deserves consideration for the great
job he has done this season. I’ve followed his career going back to his days
as a linebacker at USC, and he was my teammate in Dallas for three years.
Del Rio always impressed me as a bright guy and a tough competitor, so it’s
no surprise that those are the qualities that define his teams in
Jacksonville: tough, physical, hard-working, smart, rock solid on defense.
Del Rio gets as much out of his players as any coach in the league.
The Jaguars might not have the glitz of the Patriots or Packers or Cowboys,
but they just might be the most dangerous team playing this weekend. They
beat three division winners during the regular season (San Diego, Pittsburgh
and Tampa Bay), and two of their four losses were to Indianapolis, the team
that hogs the spotlight in the AFC South. If you’re looking for a dark-horse
team to make a surprise run in the playoffs, consider Jacksonville.
Filed under: Aikman Efficiency ratings
The Patriots are still chasing perfection. The record (since 1995) for the highest Aikman Offensive Rating for a season is 94.4 by the Colts – a mark New England, now at 101.7, is all but assured of breaking with only three weeks left. A score of 100, which would represent an average of record or near record performance in all seven categories, is also possible. The highest mark for any unit in AER history was 101.0 by the 2000 Ravens Defense.
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The biggest discrepancy between the NFL’s yards gained or allowed method of rating units and the seven-step AERs occurs on defense. Minnesota has the 25th-rated defense by the NFL’s official method, but are 3rd in the Defensive AERs. The Vikings lead the NFL in fewest yards allowed per rush, are tied for fourth in takeaways and are eighth in fewest points allowed.
Seattle, Jacksonville and San Diego are other teams that are more highly rated by the AERs than they are by simply measuring yards allowed.
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Filed under: Aikman Efficiency ratings
I continue to be struck by the difference between the separation between the best offenses and the best defenses in the NFL this year, both as I’ve observed them in person and as indicated by the differences in the offensive and defensive leaders of the Aikman Efficiency Ratings.
The AERs measure seven different key categories to rate both units. They work around a historic average of 75.0 for mean production in those categories. The two units are the inverse of each other, meaning that an offense with a rating of 90 (plus 15 over 75) achieves the same level of performance as a defense of 60 allows – and vice versa.
The league average this year is 76.6. That amount over 75.0 is largely the result of the amazing production of the Patriots who are now at 102.1. The average of the other 31 teams is about 75.7 with 16 above 75 and 15 below.
As you can see if you look at the AERs below, the Steelers now sit atop the Defensive Ratings, but their rating is only 83.9.
This Sunday’s game in New England therefore features the number one offense (both in the AERs and NFL) versus the number one defense (ditto).
However, the numbers 102.1 versus 83.9 tell you how much more dominant as an offense the Patriots have been.
For example, there are only two teams (Cowboys and Colts) within 15.0 points of New England’s AER Offensive Rating.
On the other hand, there are 26 teams within 15.0 points of the Steelers.
Pittsburgh may have the best defense in the NFL at the moment, but their margin over average performance is surprisingly small.
They say that you win in the NFL with great defense, but the simple fact of the matter is that no one in the league has played that kind of defense as judged by a historic standard. The defensive talent seems to be spread fairly evenly throughout the league.
The Chiefs, Ravens and Titans have also been the top-ranked defense in recent weeks.
As you can see at the moment, the margin between the Seahawks at #2 and the Vikings at #8 is just 1.9 points.
I’m not trying to take anything away from the league’s defenders, as defense is only down slightly from league norms. It’s just that this year, the defensive talent seems to be widely spread around the league. Many teams are good, no one is great.
And when that happens, ultimate victory may very well go to the best offenses. The Patriots have been amazing with the ball. Even with their tight wins the last two weeks, they’ve scored 51 points on offense.
The Cowboys and the Colts also have offenses that are operating at a better level than the best defenses. Right now, with the defenses so even, it is how a team plays on offense that is determining who wins.
If you look at the Aikman Combined Ratings, you will note that the teams with the top five AER offensive ratings are also the top five in the Combined. They are also the only five teams in the NFL with nine or more wins.
In the absence of a dominating defense, it’s how you perform on offense that decides games.
OFFENSE –
As we mentioned last week, the Patriots are almost certain to top the 94.4 mark of the 2004 Indianapolis Colts that is our record for a season AER Offensive Rating. More problematical though is whether they can beat 100 which would represent “top performance” in all seven categories.
They’ve slid back from a high of 104.7 two weeks ago.
DEFENSE
In the introduction to this week’s commentary there is discussion about the lack of a dominant defense over the course of the entire season.
It should be pointed out though that in the last four weeks there have been two defenses that have performed in a dominant fashion, and they are closing in on division titles because of it.
Since Week10, the Buccaneers have an AER Defensive Rating of 93.6 and the Seahawks are right behind them at 92.6.
As a result, both teams are on the move in the season-long rating. The Seahawks have advanced from 10th to 2nd in that span and the Bucs have moved from 19th to 5th.
Conversely, the Patriots should have some concern about their defense. In the last four weeks, New England has performed at a mere 64.8 rate to drop from 6th to 11th.
AIKMAN COMBINED
As mentioned above the top five teams in the AER Combined Ratings happen to be the five with the five highest-rated offenses.
In a case where the NFL method of rating matches up with the Aikmans, the top four teams if you add up their offensive and defensive ranking are also the top four in the NFL’s system based on yards gained and allowed.
There is a difference in the number five spot. Adding the NFL’s rankings produces the Eagles in 5th with a combined total of 18. The AER combined has Philadelphia down at 12th.
Conversely, a team the AER Combined likes better than adding the NFL numbers is Minnesota. The Vikings are 8th in the AERs and 16th in the NFL with a combined 36 (12th on offense, 24th on defense). Intuitively, I like what the Vikings are doing especially with their domination in both ends of the rushing game.
AIKMAN GAME RATINGS – Week 13
Teams with the higher Aikman Game Ratings went 14-2 last week while teams with more yards posted an 11-5 W-L record. It was the 12th time in 13 weeks this year that the AER Game Ratings leaders have won more than the teams with the most yards.
We think this is significant in showing that the AERs are a better reflection of the qualities needed to win games than just gaining the most yards. For the year, teams with higher Aikman Game Ratings have won 88% of their games, teams with more yards just 70%.
