Troy Aikman

AER2007_08b

AIKMAN COMMENTARY – Week 8

As we hit the midway point, the Patriots appear poised to break the previous record of 94.4 for offensive performance in the Aikman Efficiency Ratings. That mark was set by the Colts in 2004 – in the same year that Peyton Manning set the NFL touchdown pass record of 49 that is now being challenged by Tom Brady.

As reminder, the scale was set up so that a “perfect” score of 100 would be achieved only if an offense matched record or near-record performance in seven different key categories.

While such a score can be, indeed often is, achieved over short periods of time such as a single game – I did not contemplate that an offense could be so well-balanced in each category that they could reach or exceed 100 for an entire season. In 12 seasons of AER measurements, 12 offenses have topped the 90 mark in 12 seasons.

However, with each passing week that the Patriots remain above 100, there task of staying above 94.4 for the season becomes easier. A quick look at the ratings, shows that even if they tumble to the solid, but unspectacular, efficiency of the Browns so far this year (86.2) for the remainder of the season, they still would top 94.4.

They’re task to become the first 100-point offense is more daunting. A few FGs in the red zone, a couple of games with scores only in the 20s, a game with four or so turnovers – all could be enough to deny them their run at AER Offensive perfection.

We should also note, that although not as spectacular as the Patriots, the Colts are also operating above the 94.4 record level.

In the seven AER categories, the Patriots rank higher in four – yards per pass play, first downs, offensive points per game and red zone efficiency. The Colts are better in yards per rush, third down conversions and have committed fewer turnovers.

While both teams play very good defense – the Colts are seventh in the current Defensive AERs at 79.8 and the Patriots are eighth at 79.5 – I would expect Sunday’s big game in Indianapolis to be a high-scoring one. These are two offensive units for the ages, even though their head coaches both come from the defensive side of the coaching tree.

STATS IN WORD DOC

With the Ravens idle, the Titans solid defensive effort against Oakland enabled them to remain in first place in the Week 8 AERs for defense.

The Chargers may be 18^th in yards allowed (the only stat the NFL uses to rank offenses and defenses), but they have moved to fourth in the Defensive AERs because they rank second in the league in takeaways, fourth in yards allowed per rush and tied for fifth in red zone defense.

Interestingly, eight of the top nine defenses in the current AERs are from the AFC – a conference which has mainly been making headlines with the offenses of the Patriots and Colts.

STATS IN WORD DOC

It’s no surprise that the Patriots and Colts remain 1-2 in the latest Combined AERs. The record for the highest AER in a season (dating back to 1995) is the 1996 Green Bay Packers who went 173.7 in their Super Bowl-winning season. Both New England and Indianapolis are running well ahead of that mark.

STATS IN WORD DOC

The Patriots and the surprising Browns had the best Aikman Game Ratings for Week 8 – a measurement of how one team’s offense dominated their opponent’s defense.

Conversely, the surprising Lions (by limiting the Bears to just a 36.1 mark) had the best defensive performance.

It was the third straight week the Patriots have been over 110. The 110 mark of excellence has been exceeded 10 times in eight weeks – four times by New England.

Although the Browns came up short of that mark in Week 8, they are the only other team with more than one 110-point game this year. They did it in Week 2 against Cincinnati and in Week 6 against the Dolphins.

Here are the top AER Game Ratings this year – measuring the most dominant offensive performances:

STATS IN WORD DOC

The team with the higher Aikman Game Rating has now won 86.3% of the games in the NFL this year (101-16) while the team that gains more yards has won only 67.0% of the time (77-38).

Week 8 was the fourth week this year that was just one game from perfection. Only the Giants in their narrow win in England overcame an AER deficiency to win (they also gained fewer yards).

STATS IN WORD DOC

AIKMAN COMMENTARY – Week 6

AIKMAN OFFENSE

The Patriots and Colts both look like they are going to be contenders to surpass the 94.4 mark of the 2004 Colts that stands as the best figure we have charted in our database back to 1995. That was the great Indianapolis offense that featured Peyton Manning’s record 49 touchdown passes – although you might be surprised they were not considered the number one offense in the NFL that year. Using only total yards gained, the NFL measure, a Chiefs team (that did have a fine 92.4 AER) was considered the best offense.

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It’s not surprising to me that my old coach Norv Turner is beginning to get the Chargers offense in gear. Much was made of San Diego’s problems in the first two weeks, but they now have put together Aikman Game Ratings of more than 100 in each of their last two outings. Although the yards gained totals have been middle-of-the-road, San Diego has made only one turnover and converted 41 of 49 possible points (83.7%) in the red zone in the last two weeks.

Aikman Efficiency Ratings Through Week 6, 2007 — Offense

AIKMAN DEFENSE

The battle for top defense in the 2007 Aikman Defense Ratings is quite intense with five teams currently bunched at the top within 2.1 points of each other. The Titans have retained first place this week, but the Ravens surged back to second after stifling the Rams.

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The Vikings are the noteworthy “Aikman Defense” of the year so far, seventh in the AERs but 25^th in the NFL’s ranking. While Minnesota has not been strong against the pass this year, they do lead the NFL with 14 takeaways (three of which were returned for touchdowns), have the best run defense in the NFL and have held to opposition to a better than average 16.6 points per game.

Aikman Efficiency Ratings Through Week 6, 2007 — Defense

AIKMAN COMBINED

Fresh from their victory over the Cowboys, the Patriots have displaced Dallas as the top team in the Aikman Combined Ratings – the merger of the Aikman Offense and Defense Ratings.

The Patriots defense still lags behind the offense in large measure due to the fact that New England’s red zone defense stands 31^st in the league by having given up 5.50 points for every opponent penetration inside the 20. They also are not especially prolific in forcing turnovers.

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Looking up and down the list of Aikman Combined teams we note that it roughly conforms with the won-loss records.

We have noted in the past that teams that do not have a winning record despite a high rating often are candidates to make a late run. At the moment, the two teams with a top 10 rating and losing records are the Eagles and Vikings. Both are stronger on defense and are coming off big victories last week. If their offenses can continue to find their stride – as Minnesota did with the special play of Adrian Peterson last week – they could easily make a playoff run.

Conversely, the Lions have a winning record and a low Aikman Combined rating. Their two losses – to Washington and Philadelphia – have been so horrendous that they haven’t gained any traction in the Combined, especially on defense.

Aikman Combined Ratings Through Week 6, 2007

AIKMAN GAME RATINGS FOR WEEK 6

Each week we look back at the previous week’s Aikman Game Rating to see if the team’s with the higher game rating are successful in winning. We contend that the AERs have more to do with the factors on offense and defense that contribute to team success than the mere compliation of yardage.

Now in our third year of tracking the AGRs, we continue to see a constant correlation – and last week was an especially vivid example. The teams with the higher Aikman Game Rating were 13-1 last week with only Green Bay’s victory over Washington defying that trend.

Meanwhile, yardage was a poor indicator of success in Week 6 with team’s that outgained their opponents winning only 7 of 13 contests.

Here are the ongoing numbers:

AIKMAN COMMENTARY – Week 5

We’ve received emails from readers who noted that in our Week 4 commentary we said teams with a higher Aikman Game Rating went 13-1 that week – which may have been confusing since up until now you haven’t had access to these ratings.

Some of you thought we were referring to the season-long Aikman Combined Ratings that reflected play through the first three weeks. And it was there that things weren’t so good for the higher-rated teams in an upset-riddled Week 4. The higher-ranked teams in those AERs went only 6-8 as clubs like Cleveland, Buffalo and the Giants showed better form than they had previously.

The Aikman Game Ratings – much like the NFL QB ratings do with QBs – helps show who played better in a specific game – and we have evidence that it does a better job of identifying winning traits than just who gained the most yards. But when a team that previously had been doing the things necessary to win starts turning the ball over (like Green Bay did last week), their higher Aikman Combined isn’t going to help them win that specific game.

The NFL measures offense and defense strictly by how many yards a team gains. In declaring a team to be the number one offense in the league nothing else – not turnovers, not third down conversions, not even points – matters.

While the team that gains the most yards wins about 69% of the time – that still means out gained teams win nearly one-third of all games.

We have found the Aikman Game Ratings more often mirror the actual result of the game – usually to a tune of nearly 85%. We think this is an important indicator that the AERs – which measure seven different categories – are a better standard for true offensive and defensive efficiency.

Here are the numbers since the start of 2005

These numbers are however, like any stat, reflective in that they look backwards.

Now, let us look at Week 5’s GAME RATINGS:

What this shows is that the AERs agree with the NFL and yards in that the Chargers had the best offensive game in the league in Week 5 in that category. However, and having been there I think this is justified, the Steelers who scored “only” 21 points and had the 13^th-highest yards gained total had the third-highest rating of the week. Pittsburgh made zero turnovers, converted 53.5% of its third downs and scored all three times in the red zone.

Conversely, if you flip the ratings, Pittsburgh had the best defensive effort of the week against the Seahawks.

Last week, the teams with the higher Aikman Game Ratings went 12-2 (as did the teams with more yards gained). The games where the AER was “incorrect” included a virtual ratings tie between the Dolphins and Texans that was decided on a last second 57-yard FG and the three-point Rams-Cardinals game – both close calls.

On the other hand, the Bears win over the Packers is correctly reflected despite Green Bay out gaining Chicago, 439 to 285. Green Bay had five turnovers, Chicago just one – and it made the difference.

So the AER Combined Ratings would have “predicted” a Green Bay win since the Packers had a 159.0 Combined Rating while the Bears were just 136.0. But when Green Bay started turning the ball over its Game Rating plunged despite all the yards they gained.

Now as far as predicting games in the future, here are the current Aikman Combined Ratings for a couple of this week’s matchups.

Minnesota (154.0) at Chicago (142.7)

Even if you give Chicago 10 AER points for a home field advantage, you still have Minnesota favored. I think the Vikings have a fine defense (82.5) and understand how this comes out. But, Chicago’s rating reflects an offense that was ineffective for three games with Rex Grossman at QB. Brian Griese may have improved the Bears attack – we will see – so it wouldn’t surprise me if Chicago won despite what the AERs seem to indicate.

New England (177.7) at Dallas (178.4)

Sometimes the AERs confirm your opinion of a team – and sometimes they don’t. I’ve been as impressed as anyone with the Patriots’ hot start, but the AERs don’t confer greatness on them just yet. It should be noted that their five victims have a combined 7-16 record and only San Diego ranks in the top half of our Combined AERs. I expect this to be a great game and think the Cowboys could win and will almost surely end New England’s streak of victories by 17-plus points.

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AIKMAN COMMENTARY – Week 4

There’s no surprise at the top of the Offensive Aikman Efficiency Ratings through four weeks of the NFL season with the Patriots, Cowboys and Colts sitting 1-2-3. In a slightly different order, these three teams also sit atop the NFL’s rankings which are determined only by total yards.

A huge gap of 11.4 ratings points has already emerged between the top three teams and Arizona which now sits in fourth in a cluster of four teams between 85.7 and 84.6.

The Cardinals’ jump from 22^nd in the final 2006 AER Offensive Ratings (at 72.4) can be attributed in large part to the team’s success in the Red Zone in ’07. Arizona has reached the end zone on six of eight trips inside the 20 and has a hearty average of 6.00 points per Red Zone opportunity – second-best in the NFL at the moment.

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Things can change quickly in the NFL – and the Raiders and Rams offer two cases in point.

The Raiders finished dead last in the 2006 NFL with their 54.6 Offensive AER. In fact, it was the worst Season Offensive AER we have recorded in our database that goes back to 1995.

That’s all changed in ’07 under Coach Lane Kiffin and with a re-emphasis on the running game. The Raiders are fifth in the Offensive AERs at the moment (and up to 10^th in the NFL). The Browns, 30^th in ’06, are also showing a major improvement as they now stand seventh in ’07.

On the other hand, the Rams had a fine offense in 2006. They finished the year fourth in the ’06 Offensive AERs at 84.4 for the season after blistering a 97.9 mark in the season’s final four weeks. But so far in ’07, they are dead last at 55.5.

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Things are much more closely bunched on defense this year with the Eagles moving to the forefront after Week 4 – but seven other teams are within their 85.9 rating.

In that top group of eight, two teams that are significantly outperforming their NFL yards allowed ranking are the Vikings and Seahawks. Minnesota gets high marks for its rush defense, turnovers created and limited number of points allowed. In addition to turnovers and points, the Seahawks are getting extra points for limiting the number of first downs allowed.

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The AER Game Ratings went 13-1 last week (the team with the higher AER Game Rating won all but the Packers-Vikings game) to go to 53-9 or 85.5% on the year.

Teams that have gained more yards have gone 43-19 for a 69.4% correlation to victory.

We cite this periodically as proof of our contention that the AERs provide a better indicator of the factors that actually win football games than just the matter of which team gained the most yards.